Labor likely to win WA election, but the campaign is exposing faultlines in the state’s politics

With Western Australia heading to the polls on March 8, the Cook Labor government will likely prove the exception to the rule that incumbency is a liability for contemporary governments.

Despite incumbent governments around the world losing office^[1], Labor looks headed for a comfortable re-election.

The WA contest begins from an unusual position. In 2021, Labor won a historic victory, driven by the popularity of the then premier Mark McGowan. It won 53 of 59 seats in the Legislative Assembly, with the Liberals reduced to two elected members in that chamber.

Since then, however, Labor’s popularity has slipped.

In September 2024, the Freshwater Strategy poll^[2] reported Labor’s primary vote had declined from 60% to 39%, while the Liberals’ primary vote had increased to 32% from 21% since the 2021 state election.

A January-February 2025 Newspoll^[3] had Labor’s primary vote down from 59.9% to 42%, and its two-party preferred primary vote down from 69.7% to 56%.

Nevertheless, on a two-party preferred basis, Labor is ahead on 56% to the Liberals’ 44%. While Premier Roger Cook is no McGowan, his approval rating is higher than that of the Liberal leader, Libby Mettam.

The WA Labor government has several factors working in its favour.

First is the healthy (two-party preferred) margins that Labor holds in many seats, including traditionally safe Liberal seats. After 2021, the WA Electoral Commission (WAEC^[4]) reclassified several former Liberal-held seats as “very safe” or “safe” Labor seats. Labor’s margins in Dawesville^[5], South Perth^[6], Riverton^[7] and Darling Range^[8] make it far from certain these seats will return to the Liberals in 2025.

Second, Labor is presiding over a strong local economy. While it has faced criticism for weak responses on housing^[9], equitable access to government concessions, and climate action^[10], Labor’s fiscal record is not in contention.

Third, Cook is not shy about activating WA’s sensitivities about the east coast. He has railed about “laws which damage Western Australia’s economy^[11]”, and complained that the nation’s high “standard of living […] is because of West Australian industry and the West Australian economy”.

The Cook government can back in its “WA-first” position by pointing to policy wins against federal governments. These include securing increases in WA’s GST share^[12] and forcing the shelving of proposed federal nature-positive legislation^[13].

However, WA Labor cannot take all the credit for its strong position. The WA opposition is doing itself remarkably few favours.

A challenge for the Liberals is the loss of (people) presence due to their spectacular electoral losses in 2021. In addition to losing the status of the official opposition, the remaining party room lacked star power, featuring a National party defector^[14], an upper house member later sacked for lying^[15] to the party leader, and divisive figures such as Nick Goiran and Peter Collier^[16], both key players in the destabilisation that contributed to the party’s 2021 defeat.

Mettam has also been undermined by forces within her own party.

Her most serious challenger is the media personality, Lord Mayor of Perth, and Liberal candidate for Churchlands, Basil Zempilas.

In November 2024, an employee of Zempilas admitted to leaking an internal poll^[17] to the media that suggested Mettam’s continued leadership would cause a 3% swing against the party. While Zempilas denied knowledge of the poll, Mettam was forced to hold a party room meeting to defend her leadership five months before the election.

Then there are some questionable decisions taken by Mettam.

She flipped on the Voice to parliament referendum^[18] and later adopted federal Liberal leader Peter Dutton’s position on refusing to stand in front of the First Nations Flag^[19]. Such positions will be popular among some voters, but not the inner metropolitan constituencies that the party hopes to win back.

The final complication is the Liberals’ tetchy relationship with the Nationals, the official opposition since 2021.

The WA Liberals and Nationals have always had a tense relationship. Not even the shared experience of a depleted parliamentary presence inspired camaraderie. Despite their alliance^[20], the Labor government exploited policy tensions^[21] between them.

In preparation for even more fraught times ahead, the two parties signed an election code of conduct^[22], agreeing to play nice at elections. However, the Nationals face an existential crisis owing to changes to the state upper house electoral rules^[23]. Introducing a single statewide upper house electorate ended the malapportionment^[24] that had bolstered the Nationals’ representation in the Legislative Council.

The Nationals responded by fielding additional lower house candidates^[25], although fewer than the party had foreshadowed^[26]. Crucially, the Nationals are competing in the seats of South Perth and Bateman^[27], which are key inner metropolitan seats for the Liberals. Labor, however, is doing the Nationals no favours by preferencing the Liberals^[28].

There is also an assortment of minor parties and independents. Climate 200 is backing^[29] several independents, two of whom are contesting the prized former Liberal seats of Churchlands and Nedlands. Now that McGowan fever has abated, the “Teals” might swoop in as the progressive middle path between Labor and Liberals. Green victories will be likely restricted to the Legislative Council.

The election might be a foregone conclusion in WA but it would be a mistake to think it is a prelude to the federal election. While WA Labor remains broadly popular among the state’s voters, polling^[30] suggests there is less love for the federal Labor party.

References

1. ^{^} losing office (theconversation.com)
2. ^{^} Freshwater Strategy poll (freshwaterstrategy.com)
3. ^{^} Newspoll (www.theaustralian.com.au)
4. ^{^} WAEC (www.elections.wa.gov.au)
5. ^{^} Dawesville (www.abc.net.au)
6. ^{^} South Perth (www.abc.net.au)
7. ^{^} Riverton (www.abc.net.au)
8. ^{^} Darling Range (www.abc.net.au)
9. ^{^} housing (www.abc.net.au)
10. ^{^} climate action (www.theguardian.com)
11. ^{^} laws which damage Western Australia’s economy (www.watoday.com.au)
12. ^{^} WA’s GST share (www.abc.net.au)
13. ^{^} nature-positive legislation (www.abc.net.au)
14. ^{^} National party defector (www.abc.net.au)
15. ^{^} lying (www.abc.net.au)
16. ^{^} Nick Goiran and Peter Collier (www.abc.net.au)
17. ^{^} internal poll (www.watoday.com.au)
18. ^{^} Voice to parliament referendum (www.abc.net.au)
19. ^{^} First Nations Flag (www.watoday.com.au)
20. ^{^} alliance (www.abc.net.au)
21. ^{^} exploited policy tensions (www.abc.net.au)
22. ^{^} code of conduct (thewest.com.au)
23. ^{^} state upper house electoral rules (www.abc.net.au)
24. ^{^} malapportionment (www.youtube.com)
25. ^{^} additional lower house candidates (www.abc.net.au)
26. ^{^} foreshadowed (www.theaustralian.com.au)
27. ^{^} South Perth and Bateman (www.watoday.com.au)
28. ^{^} preferencing the Liberals (thewest.com.au)
29. ^{^} Climate 200 is backing (thewest.com.au)
30. ^{^} polling (theconversation.com)