The Times Australia
The Times World News

.

The government has unveiled its Navy of the future. Will it solve our current problems – or just create new ones?

  • Written by Peter Layton, Visiting Fellow, Griffith Asia Institute, Griffith University

Australia’s naval surface combatant fleet is in trouble. The eight Anzac frigates[1] are worn out[2] after three decades of Middle Eastern adventures and hard to crew[3]. The Anzac’s replacements, the much-criticised[4] Hunter Class frigates[5], are late – the first will not enter service until 2032 or so[6].

The project’s cost has also stunningly risen from A$35 billion in 2018[7] to $45 billion a couple of years ago to now $65 billion[8], even before actual ship construction starts.

Adding to the problems, the Navy now dislikes its 12 new offshore patrol vessels (OPVs)[9] currently being built; this seemingly simple project is also late, costly ($3.7 billion[10] overall) and a “project of concern[11]”.

Meanwhile, the Navy’s three brand new Hobart Class destroyers surprisingly need major, costly upgrades[12] that will take two to three years each. With luck, all three will be back in service by 2032.

These numbers are important as the Navy needs three ships in service to reliably maintain one ship deployed on distant operations for an extended period. Across most of the next decade, our current naval surface warship fleet will be able to dependably deploy only two, maybe three, warships simultaneously for extended periods. This is high-input cost for low-output usage.

A consultant-driven solution

That’s the problem. A review undertaken by highly paid[13], external consultants, led by a retired US Navy admiral, has now provided the solution.

The review released today[14] recommends keeping the three Hobart Class destroyers and six of the aged ANZAC frigates, building only six Hunter Class frigates and stopping the OPV program immediately at six ships.

Crew of a Hobart-class destroyer performing deck duties in 2017. David Moir/AAP

The big surprise was the recommendation the Navy acquire at least seven – and “optimally” 11 – new general purpose frigates and six large optionally crewed surface vessels (LOSVs). The government agreed with both recommendations.

The new frigates will be a similar size to the Anzacs and effectively a half-size Hunter. Called “Tier 2” ships, they will be designed for anti-submarine warfare and used to secure seaborne trade routes, Australia’s northern maritime approaches and to escort the Navy’s amphibious ships.

They will have an air and missile defence capability and carry several anti-ship and land-attack missiles. Notably, the first three frigates will be built overseas – this will likely draw criticism.

The LOSVs will increase the Navy’s long-range strike capacity and appear to be similar to the US Navy’s planned large uncrewed surface vessels, which will enter service late this decade.

These vessels will mostly operate without a crew, though they may have a small crew embarked for short periods, such as when entering and leaving port or refuelling at sea. The LOSVs are expected to be lower-cost, long-endurance vessels able to carry anti-ship and land-attack missiles.

The review glosses over the serious inability of crewing the current 11-ship surface warship Navy, let alone a 26-vessel one. The Navy is already about 900 people[15] short, equivalent to more than three Anzac ship crews, as it struggles to meet its recruitment goals[16].

The Department of Defence, however, considers the problem[17] more one of retention than recruitment and is taking steps to slow the personnel loss rate, but it has much ground to make up before it can grow into a much larger force.

The review merely recognised the challenge and simply hoped for the best.

Read more: The much-anticipated defence review is here. So what does it say, and what does it mean for Australia?[18]

Implications of the review

First, the good news. Much of the money for the new ships will be spent in Australia – not just on sheet metal hull construction, but also on electronics.

For example, the future of the world-leading radar technology company[19] recently purchased by the federal government, appears secure.

There are definite benefits in both creating a more skilled Australian workforce[20] and sustaining a sovereign, Australian naval shipbuilding industry. Critics will correctly argue[21] it’s more expensive than buying from overseas, but given tax claw-backs, maybe not that much.

Even so, the cost-benefit analysis will be hard to calculate – the decision over whether it’s good value for money needs to be a judgement call, not an analysis based on mathematics.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and South Australia Premier Peter Malinauskas (centre) during a visit to Osborne Naval Shipyard in Adelaide in 2023. Matt Turner/AAP

Second, the Albanese government came to office calling for much better “impactful projection[22]” – that is, the ability to apply strategically meaningful military power at great distance from Australia’s shores using missiles.

The new frigates, however, will only carry some additional missiles – not many. As such, the government seems to have changed its earlier intentions and will instead focus more on the submarine threat to Australia’s trade routes.

The only nod to “impactful projection” in the review today is the building of six new LOSVs, each of which will be able to carry 32 missiles to sea. (One LOSV working with a Hobart Class frigate, however, will have around 88 missiles.)

Critics will point to[23] the fact this is fewer than a single US Navy Arleigh Burke destroyer, which carries 96 missiles, and its larger Chinese counterpart, which carries 128.

Read more: Australia can no longer afford to ignore Russia's expanding naval power in the Pacific[24]

Third, the review does not call for renewing the Navy’s ageing Anzac flotilla quickly enough. Warship shortages will persist well into the next decade. This is bad news for the short term.

And lastly, the Navy will now have three major ship and submarine projects underway. The new plan to acquire an additional flotilla of frigates will take considerable time, soak up the country’s scarce ship-building workforce and be remarkably costly.

This will adversely impact the Navy operationally and the rest of the Department of Defence, Army and Air Force. As a result, we can likely expect cuts to the Army in the forthcoming budget.

Overall, the review is good for jobs in Adelaide and Perth and will make the Navy significantly larger over the long term. It will also partly placate some government critics who want to buy ships overseas, arguing this will mean faster delivery, and those who believe[25] the government needs “new money” added to currently planned defence budgets.

But the true cost impacts of the reform plan must await the budget. The plan will also take a long time to implement and has ignored the Navy’s chronic shortage of skilled personnel, which is surely most unwise.

References

  1. ^ Anzac frigates (www.navy.gov.au)
  2. ^ worn out (www.afr.com)
  3. ^ hard to crew (www.theaustralian.com.au)
  4. ^ much-criticised (www.defensenews.com)
  5. ^ Hunter Class frigates (www.navy.gov.au)
  6. ^ 2032 or so (www.anao.gov.au)
  7. ^ A$35 billion in 2018 (www.abc.net.au)
  8. ^ $65 billion (www.abc.net.au)
  9. ^ offshore patrol vessels (OPVs) (www.abc.net.au)
  10. ^ $3.7 billion (www.anao.gov.au)
  11. ^ project of concern (www.defence.gov.au)
  12. ^ major, costly upgrades (www.theaustralian.com.au)
  13. ^ highly paid (www.smh.com.au)
  14. ^ released today (www.defence.gov.au)
  15. ^ about 900 people (www.aap.com.au)
  16. ^ struggles to meet its recruitment goals (www.afr.com)
  17. ^ considers the problem (www.aph.gov.au)
  18. ^ The much-anticipated defence review is here. So what does it say, and what does it mean for Australia? (theconversation.com)
  19. ^ radar technology company (www.minister.defence.gov.au)
  20. ^ Australian workforce (www.defence.gov.au)
  21. ^ correctly argue (www.abc.net.au)
  22. ^ impactful projection (www.aspi.org.au)
  23. ^ will point to (www.aspistrategist.org.au)
  24. ^ Australia can no longer afford to ignore Russia's expanding naval power in the Pacific (theconversation.com)
  25. ^ who believe (www.andrewhastie.com.au)

Read more https://theconversation.com/the-government-has-unveiled-its-navy-of-the-future-will-it-solve-our-current-problems-or-just-create-new-ones-223846

Times Magazine

Headless CMS in Digital Twins and 3D Product Experiences

Image by freepik As the metaverse becomes more advanced and accessible, it's clear that multiple sectors will use digital twins and 3D product experiences to visualize, connect, and streamline efforts better. A digital twin is a virtual replica of ...

The Decline of Hyper-Casual: How Mid-Core Mobile Games Took Over in 2025

In recent years, the mobile gaming landscape has undergone a significant transformation, with mid-core mobile games emerging as the dominant force in app stores by 2025. This shift is underpinned by changing user habits and evolving monetization tr...

Understanding ITIL 4 and PRINCE2 Project Management Synergy

Key Highlights ITIL 4 focuses on IT service management, emphasising continual improvement and value creation through modern digital transformation approaches. PRINCE2 project management supports systematic planning and execution of projects wit...

What AI Adoption Means for the Future of Workplace Risk Management

Image by freepik As industrial operations become more complex and fast-paced, the risks faced by workers and employers alike continue to grow. Traditional safety models—reliant on manual oversight, reactive investigations, and standardised checklist...

From Beach Bops to Alpine Anthems: Your Sonos Survival Guide for a Long Weekend Escape

Alright, fellow adventurers and relaxation enthusiasts! So, you've packed your bags, charged your devices, and mentally prepared for that glorious King's Birthday long weekend. But hold on, are you really ready? Because a true long weekend warrior kn...

Effective Commercial Pest Control Solutions for a Safer Workplace

Keeping a workplace clean, safe, and free from pests is essential for maintaining productivity, protecting employee health, and upholding a company's reputation. Pests pose health risks, can cause structural damage, and can lead to serious legal an...

The Times Features

Duke of Dural to Get Rooftop Bar as New Owners Invest in Venue Upgrade

The Duke of Dural, in Sydney’s north-west, is set for a major uplift under new ownership, following its acquisition by hospitality group Good Beer Company this week. Led by resp...

Prefab’s Second Life: Why Australia’s Backyard Boom Needs a Circular Makeover

The humble granny flat is being reimagined not just as a fix for housing shortages, but as a cornerstone of circular, factory-built architecture. But are our systems ready to s...

Melbourne’s Burglary Boom: Break-Ins Surge Nearly 25%

Victorian homeowners are being warned to act now, as rising break-ins and falling arrest rates paint a worrying picture for suburban safety. Melbourne residents are facing an ...

Exploring the Curriculum at a Modern Junior School in Melbourne

Key Highlights The curriculum at junior schools emphasises whole-person development, catering to children’s physical, emotional, and intellectual needs. It ensures early year...

Distressed by all the bad news? Here’s how to stay informed but still look after yourself

If you’re feeling like the news is particularly bad at the moment, you’re not alone. But many of us can’t look away – and don’t want to. Engaging with news can help us make ...

The Role of Your GP in Creating a Chronic Disease Management Plan That Works

Living with a long-term condition, whether that is diabetes, asthma, arthritis or heart disease, means making hundreds of small decisions every day. You plan your diet against m...