Hong Kong Residential Market Sentiment Turns Cautious as Interest Rate Outlook Shifts
Grade A Office Availability Rate Drops Further, High Street Leasing Activities Focus on Kowloon
- Residential Market: Market sentiment turned more cautious in Q3, with total residential transaction numbers slipping by 40% q-o-q and 21% y-o-y to record around 13,240 cases.
- Home prices softened by 0.8% between July and August, yet, supported by stronger 1H performance, still recorded a cumulative rise of 7% in the first eight months of 2026.
- Grade A Office Market: Citywide net absorption reached 412,400 sq ft in Q3, mainly driven by expansion activities by the banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI) sector. Rents in Greater Central continued to pick up, while rental level declines in non-core submarkets narrowed. The overall office market rental level is expected to rise by +5% to +7% in 2026.
- Retail Market: Overall retail sales growth remained resilient on the back of growing tourist arrivals and stronger economic fundamentals supporting local consumption sentiment. The overall high street vacancy rate remained broadly stable in Q3, with leasing activities concentrated in Mongkok and Tsimshatsui.
Grade A office leasing market:BSFI expansion demand fuels leasing momentum
The Q3 2026 period marked another active quarter for Hong Kong's Grade A office market. Total new leased area reached 1.4 million sq ft in Q3, the highest quarterly level since 2019. The banking, financial services, and insurance (BFSI) sector, and consumer products / manufacturing sectors, were the key demand drivers, with BFSI occupiers largely expansion-led. Citywide net absorption reached +412,400 sq ft in the quarter. This performance helped pull down the overall availability rate 0.4 percentage point q-o-q to 19.1%. Core district rents continued to outperform non-core areas. Greater Central rents continued to climb by a further 3.0% q-o-q in Q3, while non-core area rental level declines further narrowed. Rents in Hong Kong East and Hong Kong South edged up slightly in Q3. The overall citywide rental level rose by 1.7% q-o-q in Q3, bringing YTD rental growth to +6.1%.
John Siu, Managing Director, Hong Kong, Cushman & Wakefield,said, "Rents in Greater Central grew by 13% YTD, reflecting strong demand for prime offices. However, mid-priced Grade A offices, particularly those with net effective rents of around HK$45-60 psf, are expected to continue facing headwinds, as abundant existing space and forthcoming supply across multiple submarkets within this price range is likely to sustain intense competition."
Siu added, "Looking ahead, positive market momentum is likely to partly offset the scheduled 1.2 million sq ft of new supply in Q4, keeping the availability rate broadly stable at 19% to 20% at the year-end. With a decelerating supply pipeline beyond 2026, availability may have passed its cyclical peak in 2025, but non-core areas will continue to face absorption pressure. Full-year rental growth in Greater Central is now projected to grow by +12% to +14%, supporting the citywide Grade A office rental level to rise by +5% to +7% in 2026."
Retail leasing market: Retail sales growth remains resilient, with Mongkok leading high street leasing activities
Hong Kong retail sales growth remained resilient in Q3, driven by growing tourist arrivals and stronger economic fundamentals supporting local consumption sentiment. The city's overall retail sales for the January to August 2026 period reached HK$266 billion, up 8.5% y-o-y. Among key retail categories, the Jewellery & Watches sector recorded the strongest performance, recording y-o-y sales growth of 22.6%. Other sectors, such as Medicines & Cosmetics (+5.0%) and Fashion & Accessories (+3.2%), recorded more modest low single-digit growth.
The overall high street vacancy rate remained broadly stable at 5.4% in Q3, chiefly supported by more active leasing commitments in Mongkok, with the district's vacancy rate dropping to 4.8% from 8.6% in Q2. In Tsimshatsui, although the vacancy rate moved up to 9.5%, notable new transactions were also recorded during the quarter. On Hong Kong Island, vacancy rates in Causeway Bay and Central increased in Q3, rising to 5.1% and 1.4%, respectively, after remaining at 0% for two consecutive quarters. With prime retail spaces in both districts fully occupied in previous quarters, leasing activity moderated in Q3.
High street retail rents in both Causeway Bay and Tsimshatsui remained unchanged in the quarter. In Mongkok, stronger leasing momentum supported a 0.4% q-o-q rise in rental levels. As for Tsimshatsui, a slowdown in the luxury segment combined with relatively high vacancy weighed on the district's rental performance, resulting in a fall of 1.1% q-o-q. In the F&B sector, rents remained under pressure amid high availability, dropping within a 1% range q-o-q across the four key districts.
John Siu commented, "We have observed stronger leasing demand from Japanese, South Korean and Thai brands in recent months. Looking at the first-stores recorded so far this year, approximately 36% originated from Japan, South Korea and Thailand, similar to the share accounted for by Chinese mainland brands, while exceeding the 29% recorded for 2025 full-year. We expect this trend to continue through the remainder of the year. Looking ahead, the Hong Kong retail market is expected to remain supported by resilient local consumption resulting from stronger economic fundamentals, together with greater tourist spending underpinned by a stronger RMB, and a pipeline of planned mega-events. These factors will bring continued momentum to the city's retail market. We also expect local and non-local retailers to remain selective, with demand focused on well-located retail spaces in core districts offering attractive rental packages. In turn, the city's retail market is likely to maintain a gradual recovery trajectory. We forecast high street retail rents in Causeway Bay and Central to pick up by 2% to 3% y-o-y in 2026, with Tsimshatsui and Mongkok recording modest rental growth of 1% to 2% y-o-y."
Residential Market: Home prices consolidate as transaction numbers cool in Q3, rate hikes remain key
The Hong Kong residential market consolidated somewhat in Q3 following the strong momentum recorded in 1H. After the sustained release of purchasing power over the past year, coupled with the shift of the U.S. Federal Reserve rate direction, increased stock market volatility and heightened uncertainties, some prospective buyers reverted to a wait-and-see stance. This resulted in a noticeable slowdown in transaction activity from July onwards. The monthly transaction number, which averaged more than 7,000 cases in Q2, fell back to around 4,000 deals between July and September. A total of 13,242 residential transactions were recorded in Q3, down 40% q-o-q, bringing cumulative transactions to reach 54,052 cases for the first nine months of the year, representing an 18% increase y-o-y.
Edgar Lai, Senior Director, Valuation and Consultancy Services, Hong Kong, Cushman & Wakefield, commented, "Housing price growth momentum decelerated in Q3 2026. Rating and Valuation Department data suggests that the overall residential price index softened by 0.8% in the two months from July to August, yet still achieved 7.0% growth for the first eight months of 2026. Meanwhile, our Cushman & Wakefield mid-and-small size units price index shows that home prices mildly dropped 0.1% q-o-q, yet still registering a cumulative increase of 7.7% year to date. Our tracking of popular housing estates shows that prices softened in Q3 across different market segments. Prices at City One Shatin, representing the mass market, declined by 5.7% q-o-q, while prices at Taikoo Shing, representing the mid-market, dropped by 0.6% q-o-q. Residence Bel-Air, representing the luxury segment, retreated by 3.8% q-o-q. Following the sustained release of purchasing power over the past year, coupled with tighter cross-border capital controls from the Chinese mainland, and the U.S. Fed rate hike of 0.25% in September, our September Verbal Enquiry Index declined by 35% compared with the peak seen in May."
Rosanna Tang, Deputy Managing Director, Head of Research, Hong Kong, Cushman & Wakefield, added, "The city's residential market consolidated in Q3, with monthly transactions retreating to around 4,000 cases. The slowdown reflects a more cautious stance among homebuyers amid shifting interest rate expectations and heightened external uncertainties. Looking ahead, the frequency and pace of rate hikes, together with whether local banks will follow suit, will be the key factors affecting homebuyers' purchasing decisions and affordability. Given the slower pace of transactions in Q3, we have revised our full-year residential transaction forecast to around 67,000 to 68,000 cases.
"As for pricing, should the U.S. Fed rate further increase in Q4, the residential market is expected to remain in a consolidation phase, with 2026 annual home prices likely to fluctuate in a narrow range near +7%. The rental market, however, will be more resilient underpinned by rental demand brought by the inflow of talent, non-local students, and new entrants to the city. With rental growth of 4.9% recorded in the first eight months of the year, we project a 5% to 7% y-o-y increase for the full year of 2026."
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Cushman & Wakefield (NYSE: CWK) is a leading global commercial real estate services firm for property owners and occupiers with approximately 53,000 employees in nearly 350 offices and 60 countries. In Greater China, a network of 23 offices serves local markets across the region. In 2025, the firm reported revenue of $10.3 billion across its core services of Valuation, Consulting, Project & Development Services, Capital Markets, Project & Occupier Services, Industrial & Logistics, Retail, and others. Built around the belief that Better never settles, the firm receives numerous industry and business accolades for its award-winning culture. For additional information, visit www.cushmanwakefield.com.hk or follow us on LinkedIn (https://www.linkedin.com/company/cushman-&-wakefield-greater-china).
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